Group 2 scenarios – What do India, South Africa, Pakistan and Bangladesh need to do to make semi-finals?

India and South Africa appear best placed at the moment, but there's still room for all that to change

India’s five-run win over Bangladesh in Adelaide has taken them close to qualification for the men’s T20 World Cup semi-finals, while significantly denting Bangladesh and Pakistan’s chances. Here’s a look at the prospects of the four teams in Group 2 that are still in with a real chance of finishing in the top two.

India
Played: 4, Points: 6, NRR: 0.730, Rem match: vs Zim

If India beat Zimbabwe, or if the game is washed out, then they will be in the semi-finals, as neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh can get to seven points. However, if India lose their last game, and Pakistan win both their remaining games, and South Africa lose to Pakistan but beat Netherlands, South Africa (on points) and Pakistan (on net run-rate) can finish ahead of India.

South Africa
Played: 3, Points: 5, NRR: 2.772, Rem matches: vs Pak, Ned

With five points in their kitty from three games, a superb NRR of 2.772, and two games still to come, South Africa are in an excellent position to seal a semi-final slot. If they win one of those two games and get up to seven points, they will finish among the top two. However, if they lose both matches, they will be in contention only if the Bangladesh vs Pakistan match is washed out, in which case both those teams will also finish on five points.

Bangladesh
Played: 4, Points: 4, NRR: -1.276, Rem match: vs Pak

Bangladesh need to win their last match, and then hope that South Africa get no more than one point from their two remaining games. In that case, both Bangladesh and South Africa will be level on six points, but Bangladesh will finish ahead despite a poorer NRR because they will have three wins compared to South Africa’s two. (In case teams are level on points, the number of wins is the first tie-breaker, followed by NRR.)

If South Africa move to seven points, then Bangladesh will almost certainly be knocked out as their NRR is too far behind India’s. For Bangladesh’s NRR to go past India’s, the sum of the margin of those two results – Bangladesh beating Pakistan and Zimbabwe beating India – will have to exceed 150 runs.

Pakistan
Played: 3, Points: 2, NRR: 0.765, Rem matches: vs SA, Ban

For Pakistan to make it through with six points, they will have to finish ahead of at least one of India and South Africa. They can finish ahead of South Africa if South Africa get no more than one point from their game against Netherlands, as Pakistan will have more wins.

Pakistan’s superior NRR, which is currently 0.765, means they can also move past India if India lose to Zimbabwe. For instance, even if Pakistan score 160 and win by just one run in each of their last two matches, they will finish ahead of India if Zimbabwe beat them by eight or more runs (after scoring 160). However, if India manage even one point from their last game, they will obviously move beyond Pakistan’s reach.

Zimbabwe
Played: 4, Points: 3, NRR: -0.313, Rem match: vs Ind

Zimbabwe can get to five points, which means they can be tied on points with Pakistan, Bangladesh (if their game is washed out), and South Africa (if they lose both games), but Zimbabwe’s NRR is too low to make them serious contenders. Even if they beat India by 50 runs, they will need South Africa to lose their two remaining matches by a combined total of 80 runs to overhaul their NRR.

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